睡前小作3 台湾问题

 

台湾问题是中国人的一块心病。若不是甲午年间,清王朝那支在昆明湖上练就的水师战败于黄海,现在也不会存在台湾问题和两岸对立的格局了。但是如今的台海局势,不能不说为未来中国和平过度到现代民主共和社会提供了很大的余地。毕竟,若是台湾现在归属于中华人民共和国,两岸只有一个制度、一种声音,这不仅使得中华民族失去了难得的对照物,也使得大陆的制度发展失去了外部环境的最有力约束。

可是时间已经不等人了。1949年追随蒋公去到台湾的国民党元老已经逐渐凋零,随着四大家族纷纷在美国和台湾谢世,逐渐式微的大陆势力使得台湾与中国大陆的血缘纽带日渐萎靡。民进党乃至更为深绿的建国党未来必将成为台湾政治的中流砥柱,国民党如果不进行深层次的路线改革,恐怕很难在未来第二代第三代老兵子女和原住民心中赢得足够多的选票。这也是未来对于中国大陆和平演变的不利环境之一: 如果真的是台湾民心所向,逐渐地失去和中国大陆的血缘纽带,那么台湾就无法对大陆产生足够多的政治约束。但是目前的环境已经不容许这样的割据继续演进下去。马英九能凭借着姣好的外形和岛内民众对于经国先生的怀念赢得足够多的同情票的话,那么未来的国民党领导人又能凭借什么占据台湾政坛哪?

作为一个大陆人,我不愿意见到台湾势力在中国政治舞台上的退出。毕竟,台湾为中国未来的走向提供了太多的机遇。台湾的经验已经告诉中国人,中国人是有能力搞好民主的。他的政治结构,历史演进,执政党的下台和重新上台的模式为大陆提供了太多的可能性。中华民国宪法的存在不仅能告慰中山先生的在天之灵,也为全体中国人迈入宪政轨道提供了坚实的法理基础。如果台湾在的话,我们不需要花大力气去重构宪政和官僚体系,能以最小的代价完成转型。

他山之石,可以攻玉。作为一个炎黄子孙,深知台湾乃是中华道统之所在。所以不希望这个道统始终隔离于中华故土之所在。这是我的愿景。虽说国际上有60年自治等于独立这个说法,但我觉得,都是说汉语的,都是坐拥台湾海峡和南海诸岛的,没有理由不在一起。更何况,毛泽东当年睿智地留给台湾的澎湖金马四岛将为台湾问题解决带来无限大的可能性。

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睡前小作2 美国的公交车

美国人在某些问题上比德国人还要固执,却比中国人还要随意。特别是在公交车这件事上更是如此。由于美国主流白人社会家家户户都有私家车,导致美国的公共交通体系有欠发达。政府也缺乏足够的动力去改善公共交通体系,往往出现了公交车不能按时到达,甚至是公交车抛客的现象。我自己曾经被公交车的车门夹过。这种奇葩的事情是我们这种大都市长大的人们难以想象的。

在美国,在公交车上如果需要下车,需要提前拉一下公交车上的绳子示意。这样公交车才能在下一站停靠。第一次坐车的时候我由于不了解这样的乘车规则,导致我几乎无法在我想要下车的地方下车。美国的公交系统没有报站和站名信息,所有的站台布局需要自己提前研究,在这一点上美国的公交车系统比之中国差的远了。

大多数的人总是对和自己利益无关的事情毫不关心。这一点上,美国人比中国人还要厉害。中国尚且有一大群忧国忧民的所谓士者。文死谏,武死战,想要青史留名的人还是很多的。美国就似乎缺少这种性格的人。大抵是民族价值观和外部环境的差异所导致的把。

睡前小作1 生日寄语

今天是锦程22岁青春的最后一天。在此祝愿锦程生日快乐,前程似锦。在新的一年中感受美国,学习美国,领悟中国,回报中国。

中美关系走过这169个年头,从中美望厦条约到庚子赔款建立起的清华大学;从二次大战中美的跨洋合作到改革开放后的巨额贸易往来。我感受到美国实在是历史上对中国最好的国家。也许真是这种兼容并包、春风化雨的精神才造就美国成为文化大熔炉。

中国也正在走向经济大复苏的道路上。不出意外的话,中国经济成为世界的龙头、GDP跃居世界第一是早晚的事情。在这样一个大背景下,我们更要吸取美国身上的宝贵经验,为振兴中华而努力。绝不可蹉跎度日,而要奋力前进。柏姐最近去南京出差,六朝古都,中山先生之所在。我们要完成中山先生未竟之志。想当初中山先生正是在美国建立的兴中会,才改变了中国近现代史。中山先生所言甚是:革命尚未成功,同志仍需努力。民国十二年如此,是年北伐大业未成,直系军阀控制中原,中华民族处于生灵涂炭的混乱中。今日亦是如此,但愿不要重蹈历史覆辙,做那可怜焦土的生灵。为了这一点,我们每一位都要努力。与亲共勉!

2013年10月29日星期二

也谈海龟和经济学研究

人说在国外的人才最爱国,这句话一点都没错。事实上,自从踏上美国的第二个月开始,我就彻底断了久居于美国的念头。相比较国内丰富多彩的生活,久居于海外不仅思乡思亲思友之情高涨,更有学无以之用的感觉。相比较国内教授丰富多彩的生活,业余时间的儿孙父母团聚之乐,逢年过节的大团圆和各式各样的饭局社交,我理解到定居海外的教授生活的枯燥和单调。毕竟这些客居海外的学人都是白人社会的边缘人,终其一生可能都无法融入主流的白人社会。他们的母语是中文,他们的根在中国。每天家到学校的两点一线,个体性极强的白人学者绝不可能对中国老师推心置腹。这种孤单实在是没有到过海外的中国人无法体会的。可以说,在美国的遍地的大农村中,华人学者们到周末往往只能选择去教会来舒缓自己心中的单调和苦闷,因为除了教会中的华人,也许根本就没有什么人可以和自己谈天解闷,满足自己渴望被理解和倾诉的心情。

于是就有了海龟们。尤其是在经济学圈,现在海归们的比例越来越大,好的国内的高校已经基本发展到了非海龟不招的境遇了。一般来说海龟们的读书成绩都很好,graduate school一般也读了八九年,那是相当的不容易啊。他们对于一般经济学的处理方法非常的熟悉,比如说DSGE,一般的计量和时间序列的处理手段都了然于胸,海龟们最喜欢做的莫过于使用现代的经济学模型来解释或者处理中国经济中的若干问题,因为这样的确有学的东西有用的成就感。这种想法也在我的脑海中根深蒂固。但是套用经典模型在中国经济现实中往往会有两个严重的问题。

第一,模型中对于变量传导和模型成立有着非常强大的隐含要求。有时候为了求解上的方便,模型一般都是假设经济变量的传导是自由的竞争性的,而不是受到操控乃至是操纵的。一个受到操纵的经济变量和一个扭曲的传导过程是很难用现代经济学定量工具刻画,来得出确定性的结论的。现在几乎所有的经济学模型的隐含逻辑在中国社会中是不成立的,这就给学术研究带来巨大的难题,要么放弃经典的经济学架构,自己做一套符合中国情况的经济学变量传导模型,要么就囫囵吞枣套用现成的经济学模型,再胡扯几句变成解释中国经济现象的文章。很遗憾现在的海龟们往往采取的是第二条路,不仅是因为他们从小受到应试训练,缺乏高屋建瓴提出新架构的创新能力,很大程度上还是因为周围人的示范效应使得他们根本意识不到自身文章存在的严重逻辑漏洞。另外一个方面,中国社会的急功近利使得学人不得不为终身教职在头几年中奋力打拼搏,这样的囫囵吞枣是最容易拿到终身教职的,而自己挖空心思去做一个新的模型,去救国,最后可能既发不了top,又浪费了时间。

第二个问题是中国的经济数据是有水分的。姑且不论第一个严重问题,就算模型的隐含逻辑在中国完全成立,就当中国是个高度自由的不受到任何官僚操纵的经济架构,但是我们公布的统计数据缺乏严重的可信度。这导致做出的模型结论和实际情况大相径庭,甚至是哭笑不得。

其实有一个教育部官员早就狂妄自大地声称,在社会科学领域的科研经费完全就是为了堵住学者的那张该死的嘴,让他们稍微体面点地活下去,而不是让他们搞什么狗屁学术研究的。在如今的中国的社会架构里,说真话是需要勇气的。而如果人人都说假话,久而久之人们就会把假话的逻辑当做是自然的逻辑,把新闻联播里传播的概念当做是与生俱来的逻辑。比方说,当我们天真地认为货币发行是建立在国家暴力的基础上的时候,很多人会认为这个逻辑是天然成立的。但是他们并没有想过这个逻辑并不是那么的自然的。从这个角度深挖下去,才能做出有价值的文章,如果建立在国家暴力的逻辑基础上,货币的公信力是国家暴力,那么你做货币和通货膨胀的研究,得出的结论就只能是通胀是中国人的活该。另外的逻辑是在金融市场的研究中的,象牙塔中的学人们根本不了解中国金融市场的极端血腥和残酷性,用最浪漫的模型去套用最残酷的中国金融市场的现实。当罗成狂妄自大地说出亿安科技的价格我说了算,当某操盘手为了庆祝女儿生日当天把股票钉死在涨停板上的时候,象牙塔中的学人们似乎会问,罗成是谁?操盘手是谁?327是什么?管金生是谁?这些陌生的名字和陌生的故事折射出的是学人对中国深层次社会问题的知识积累和思考能力的浅薄和无力。我一直深信,经济学的功夫在经济学之外,这样的一门社会科学如果缺乏对中国历史、文化、地理、政治架构的理解,是做不到指点江山挥斥方遒的。当我们阅读《资治通鉴》的治乱兴衰时,我们似乎已经感受到了司马光笔下那人类社会的纷纷扰扰复杂多变。当我们理解中国文化中的恃强凌弱特性和中国古代灿烂悠久文化时,我们不紧感慨勤劳勇敢和迂腐懒惰这两个看似相悖的形容词是多么的切合中国的特点了。读了资治通鉴,我们才感受出了现代博弈论处于现实社会问题是多么的无力。现代经济学对于人类行为的假定还和现实有着巨大的鸿沟,人尤其是是中国社会的人,是极端复杂多变的,当MIT的教授和博士们用着最最复杂的模型去刻画社会中的一切和预言社会中的一切时,MIT的高材生伯南克狂妄地宣称他可以坐在直升机上撒钱来解决经济困局时,上帝笑了,笑的是人类狂妄自大的浅薄和无力。当最好的宏观经济模型都无法预言甚至无法解释美国经济在增长了三十年后为什么会出现史无前例的金融危机甚至罕见的消费逆转,你就该知道社会上对于经济学家所谓的骗子头衔却非浪得虚名了。我们是骗子,一半是因为我们的狂妄,另一半是因为我们的无力。

现代经济学的研究尚处于理论物理19世纪的水平,数学模型刻画物理变量尚且不易,更不要说比粒子复杂的多得多的人类行为了。在这一点上,无论我们动用多么复杂的数学,都有可能无法解释人类的终极行为。从现代博弈论、产业组织理论,我们都可以看见拓扑、泛函分析的身影。这些看起来非常纯粹的数学在人类社会现实的描述中得到了充分的应用。也许不久的未来,我们需要开发出更加复杂的数学,减弱我们的经济学假设和变量传导条件,做出更符合现实社会的模型来。但是我的直觉告诉我们:我们只能接近真理,而不能达到真理。这和使用压缩映射原理处理起来的的贝尔曼方程不同,我们只能逼近而不能达到罢。

我心目中的好的做中国问题的经济学家应该是杨小凯这类的。受到中国传统文化的强烈熏陶,在监狱中接收到了中国社会现状的最现实的教育,然后又在美国接受到了最严格的现代经济学训练,做出了相对比较好的接近于现实社会的模型。当然,这样的人太少了,我们不能奢求所有的中国经济学人又读过资治通鉴,又了解中国现实经济状况的方方面面,又对中国的政治架构了如指掌到可以倒背所以中央委员的简历,然后又是随机偏微分方程和拓扑的高手。很遗憾,我们需要的就是这样的一群人,上面的这些条件也许是缺一不可的。

我们需要面对现实。经济学不同于物理学,她是一门社会科学,如果经济学的模型不能解释或解决现实问题的话,那经济学的研究就是大体无用的。我们要做的不是饱含热泪感慨时运不济,而是怎样在现实环境中为社会实现最大的价值。这也和经济学中约束最优规划的理念是吻合的。我们要的不是我们的目标是什么,而是我们能在现实的约束中怎样才能改进到最好。经济学让我们变成了现实主义者,我们不能抱怨我们为什么身在一个共产国家,所有的市场都是扭曲的,所有的数据都是有水分的,所有的自由都是没有的。相比较非洲,朝鲜,难民,残疾人,我们已经很幸福了。我们要做的,是怎么样在这样的一个社会现实中找到改善所有人生活条件的方法。我们需要做的,是在一个可以派66个警察,分三班倒,每班22人监控一个盲人,还在盲人家里摆满玻璃杯的国度里,让每个人生活的更好。我们解决现实问题,但我们也不能丧失理想。无论社会对于我们的评价是处在什么位置,我们都在持之以恒,永不放弃。文革中在监狱的基督徒还每天坚持祷告,认为这是上帝对他的磨砺。正所谓天将降大任于斯人也,必先苦其心志劳其筋骨,说的就是这个。文革中的基督徒很多高考恢复后上了大学,熬过了中华文明上最黑暗的十年。我们现在的境遇难道也不是上帝对我们的磨砺么?宝剑锋从磨砺出,梅花香自苦寒来。当77届的大学生只能站在食堂里吃饭,没有复印机、没有教材、没有习题集和试卷集,依然还能成为我们这个社会的中流砥柱的时候,我们有什么理由退缩。去为了一份安稳的工作而囫囵吞枣?这是对于我们天赋的滥用,也是对于上帝给予我们恩赐的滥用。

经济学是一个研究Constrained Optimization的学科,没有了Constraint,也就没有经济学了。戴着镣铐跳舞,才是最美的。

一封鼓励信

一封鼓励信

很好,进步很大,哪怕有很大的后悔,就是最大的不后悔。经济学的教授,海归真的差不多是骗子的代名词了,你我的职责是要为它恢复名誉,我是看不到最后的成功,希望在你和你们这代人身上,我们要真诚,我们不做骗子,我们要有真才实学,不管社会对我们的评价处于什么位置上,我们是做给天看的,我们不在乎尘世的评价,这就是信仰,人与动物的根本差别不是劳动,而是信仰。现在越是名牌大学,聚集的骗子越多,我们改变不了现状,但是,我们不能被他们带坏。这是我所以批评你很多次的原因,也有好些朋友说我书生意气的所在。其实我是读资治通鉴出身的,还有很多近代史的勾心斗角,阴谋诡计,了然于胸啊,所以非不能也,乃不为也,我们另有追求啊,希望你也能如此。

A Visit to 9/11 Relics

During my three day short stay in New York City, I have a twenty minutes trip to the 911 relics, where locates exactly in the Manhattan World Trade Center. To tell the truth, what impressed me the most in New York is the 911 World Trade Center relics rather than the Metropolitan Museum of Art, for it makes me peaceful in heart that reminds me the United States never forgets the loss.

It is a 15 minutes queuing before I can finally enter the relics. Everyone is required to donate 5 dollars or what he can to the World Trade Center Relics and I donated exactly 5 bucks to the 9/11 memorial fund. Michael Bloomberg, the cofounder of the Bloomberg Corporation and the mayor of the New York City, is the chairman of the committee. Thank you Mr. Bloomberg for offering great and immediate finance news and thank you Mr. Bloomberg to help the New York overcome the pain and struggle after 9/11 attack. 2,977 people were killed in this abrupt and crucial terrorist attack, among which are more than 400 first responders who died performing their sworn duties.

On the relics of the North and South building of the original World Trade Center are two waterfalls, which provide me a solemn and silent place to express my sadness and the memory to the loss. 2,977 names are engraved on the granite of the waterfall. I can touch and pray for these people. Wish them happy in the paradise. Someone just took photos before the granite. I don’t thing it is the right thing we should do in such a place, which is a place for memory but not sightseeing trip. We shall never forget those firefighters performing their duties and rescuing lives from the building, leaving us the most splendid and magnificent figure in this cruel disaster. We shall never forget the passengers on the Flight 93, launching a counter-offensive battle in the cabinet and finally crashing into an empty field heroically in western Pennsylvania. And we shall never forget the men and women, boys and girls, black and white inside the World Trade Center. Your fame will never fade with the loss of your life. The citizens of New York and the citizens of the United States will never forget you, since you are the eternal part of the United States and the September 11,2001 will be an eternal date that shall never be forgot in the United States. It is said that December 7, 1941 is the shame day in the United States but now we have to add September 11,2001. When president George Bush announced on the television that the United States will never forgive the murderer and will never forget the loss. I know that is the reason why the United States comes first around the world. Now I witness such memory in the New York.

To pray for the weak is the US spirit. I can see the seeing-eye dogs and barrier-free ways all over the New York state. This is the faith of the United States that we should take care of the disabled because God requires us to do so. Anyone can become the weak and we should reserve seat for the weak. When we grow older or face misfortune, we can be seated in the warm place we reserve and no longer feel pain and homeless. I can never experience such great memorial hall in my own country, which give me a desperate feeling that the Chinese own the spirit that we embrace the power and ignore the helpless. But everyone may become weak in some extreme case. Who knows?

This article is dedicated to the people who lost their lives on September 11, 2001.

A Random Walk Down Wall Street

A Random Walk Down Wall Street

This is the name of a famous book written by Malkiel, who raised the statement that the stock price follows a kind of random walk. Under the theory in his book, he claims it is absolutely useless to predict the future behavior of the stock market. If his theory is right, there will be no meaning to open business school and have so many people doing research on asset pricing and portfolio management. At the same time the research department in investment banks shall be dismissed immediately since the market they predict follows random walk and consequently have no meaning to predict whether it will go up. His point has no support in the real market under whatever criteria. From the statistics point if the market follows random walk, then the chance of get out of 10 sigma range shall never happen for one time in 100 years while the truth is it happened twice in recent 30 years. The first time is 1987 stock market disaster and the second time is 2008 financial crisis. And we can also disprove the random walk hypothesis in his book by the good performance of some famous investors in the near thirty years. Just take James Simons as an example, who is a famous mathematician in differential geometry and the founder of Renaissance Technology, his hedge fund outperforms the market standard in 20 per cent every year in the recent 25 years, which indicates the theory of random walk is truly ridiculous. Just as What George Soros claimed that his existence is the counter example of Malkiel’s book.

This time I am alone and take a random walk along the Wall Street, carrying a 20 pounds baggage back and with no fellow travellers. In this narrow street hardly could I smell the intense of trade in the stock market but actually this is the battlefield of the most talented people around the world. I have heard that several female investment bankers even never stopped trading when giving birth to their children. Different from last time’s visit to Wall Street, I find this time Wall Street has fewer visitors and little crowdedness. Shall my appearance to the Wall Street disturb the market equilibrium? Maybe no. To my surprise the huge National flag of the United States also disappears in the front door of New York Stock Exchange. Do the Americans stop hanging their national flag and showing their arrogance just because the closure of the government? Maybe no. Maybe Wall Street remains constant day after day and year after year but it is me who is changing. Looking at the hurrying investment bankers on the street and visitors taking photos before the New York Stock Exchange and Wall Street Bull, I find they have no difference with cops maintaining order on the street. Everyone on the street is making a living. Someone win and some others lose. This is the life on the Wall Street and all people want to earn profits from others. But who will win finally? Investment bankers? Listed companies? Or hedge fund partners? Maybe they will all lose finally. What remains forever is the eternal of Wall Street Spirit and the constant New York Stock Exchange buildings.

I will be back. I may win your money even when you are not noticed. Never neglect any people taking random walk on the street. He might be your next competitor. This is the story everyone has heard on the street.

短文一篇

人艰不拆。社会看多了也不想说什么了,虽说faculty无数的学术成就是建立在phd和薄厚的一腔狗血上的,但我依然对选择这条路无悔。

传说萨缪尔森从科学界转到经济学界,能够拉高两个学科的平均智商。我觉得经济学家太受到鄙视了。当然,目前经济学科的绝对难度是远远低于纯粹数学和物理的,基本还停留在19世纪理论科学的研究水平。数学工具刻画物理尚且不够用,刻画更复杂的人性那就更不够用了。有人在网上说怎么着一个冬令营级别的同学去搞经济学,绝对能搞出点名堂,因为智力水平摆在那里,经济学理论不行是只有一帮三等奖水平的家伙在搞。现在,连IMO满分金牌都去搞纯粹经济理论了,我相信这个学科未来是有前途的,绝对不是什么数学学不好才被迫去搞经济学的。

很羡慕北美搞数学  物理 化学  生物 计算机和统计的 同学们,清北帮和科大帮已经形成了气候,什么问题解决不了,打电话给通讯录上的本科同学,就能解决了。很遗憾,我这个学科还做不到这一点。

New York Subway

       It is two years since my last visit to New York. City born and city bred in Shanghai, I am really familiar with the smell of the cosmopolitan, which I shll never have chance to access in Buffalo. Last time when I was in New York was during my CYDP program to Columbia University while this time I am only a graduate school student. I still remember the day in New York since it is most resemblance to my homeland, which you might argue my nostalgia dominates in my spirit at this time.

       In the New York the first thing is the subway. No matter where you go in Manhattan, the quickest way is to take the subway, particularly during the peak hours. It is reported that the Mayor Michael Bloomberg takes the subway to office each week to test the quality of public transportation and at the same time save a little precious time. Built one hundred years ago, New York subway still remains the feeling of old days. Old ornament swaying and sweltering platform with no air conditioning facilities excruciating, I would rather say the subway system in Shanghai is far more advanced than that in New York. Maybe someday I should write to mayor Bloomberg to advice him to install air-conditioners and shielding barriers on the platform, as it is reported 55 will killed by subway trains last year. What a horrible thing it is! Notice that in Shanghai almost nobody is killed after the installation of shielding barriers, the social planner of New York ought to consider to install such kind of facilities to protect citizens from being hurt from trains, where can in a great extent reduce the casualty during commute everyday. I was told since my early age that the American government shows great respect to human beings and design everything suitable to supply convenience to citizens. But it is the truth in small city but not in cosmopolitan. In NYC hardly could I find a restroom vacant on the fifth avenue, which made me wait for five minutes outside the door of a male restroom in McDonald’s. That is a first-time wonderful experience that I have never undergone before. Back to the topic of the subway shielding barriers. Experts estimate that such kind of facilities can not only protect the live of human beings but save the energy cost and reduce the noise in the station as well. That is another reason it is a must to install barriers. The one-hundred-year-old New York subway brings such insupportable great noise to the passengers so that it seems an earthquake hits the station when the train approaching. Comparing with the huge benefits of installation of the barriers, the expense can be neglected no matter how expensive the labor costs. Someone may argue the New York subway is 24-hour running and consequently results in no time to cover such installing. The solution is quite simple. We can shut down the some stations on weekend and accomplish such kind of installation. I don’t think workers with high efficiency in such a quick pace cosmopolitan can fail to finish this task in a weekend, where I gain from the experience in Shanghai that workers can finish such installation in ten hours.

To tell the truth, all cosmopolitans are similar with each other with fast pace, crowed streets, inconvenient restrooms, running the red light, dirty streets, congested public transportations and traffic, and countless skyscrapers. Comparing with the low pace in small cities, I still like the feeling of New York and Shanghai firstly because I have little people to meet with in small cities and mainly because Shanghai is the city I grow up and live for 22 years. Unhesitatingly I can say I am a social animal and have to have close connection with people nearby. No matter how magnificent scenery of the Niagara Falls, I could no longer prefer this life track, sort of, to the crowed streets and abundant life in a cosmopolitan. I can go to the museums, theaters, film centers, shopping malls, Nanjing Road, Huaihai Road in Shanghai while in Buffalo I can only go to church on weekend. You may argue China has severe air pollution and political problems but what I shall tell you I have never heard of bed bugs in Shanghai. This kind of bed begs can torture you more than a bad authority.

Moving back to the topic of New York subway, I would rather say I admire the designer of the subway system of New York, who can separate the local train to the express one hundred years ago by constructing four paralleling railways. I can be transported from the Time Square to 96th street in several minutes taking the express line 2 with only one stop between crossing 54 blocks. If there were only one railway in the uptown direction, I should have had to endure twenty minutes or more to commute. The original designer of New York subway must be a genius, for he could foresee the crowded and congested Manhattan Island one hundred years later and reserved the express railway for his offspring. Why do our social planner lack such kind of capability the reserve convenience for the future? For instance, the metro line 3 and line 4 in Shanghai shares nine stations in common at the very beginning of the construction of line 4 to reduce to cost. But with so many people rush to the city, the designer plans to separate line 4 from the shared railway because the original design restricts the capacity of line 4. The cost of separation greatly exceeds the expense of building separate railways and stations at the very beginning but unfortunately our social planner is shortsighted. The designer of New York subway adds a railway track at the very beginning to reserve for the future while our designer reduces a track to save cost. Sarcastically finally we have to put more money to redesign and rebuild the line 4. We are paying for our shortsightedness no only in the metro design.

 

What we care is the thing remains forever

When you arrive at the United States first, you will have the feeling that all the people in the United States are really stubborn. No matter how you get angry, they will never allows any behavior prohibited by the law or regulation happens. For instance, if you fail to carry your ID card with you, you will find it is absolutely impossible to get aboard no matter how urgent you are. Usually when this kind of situation happens in China, you can be on aboard by playing tricks or bribing the staff. But here is the United States and there is no way.

What we observe in daily life is that Chinese people individually is much smarter than the United States. However, when we treat these people as a union we have to conclude that US people have higher efficiency than Chinese. It is not because the Chinese can fail to adapt the US society but the group of Chinese people has decreasing efficiency with respect to scale. It is said that one individual Chinese person is a dragon but one group of Chinese is a crowd of insects, which means we Chinese can never succeed to cooperate with each other. Everyone in the game only cares about himself, calculating his own benefits without taking collective interests into account. It is just like the situation in the prisoner dilemma that everyone is eager to admit rather than deny his crime by seeking his own benefit while the mutual benefit is the lowest in this Nash equilibrium. We have no right to blame each person to look for his own maximum benefit. However, in the real life when we are struggle for our own interest with no moral bottom line, it will lead to great moral hazard. Someone may argue the moral hazard of some individuals shall not directly lead to severe problem. But the speculative behaviors of individual has cultivated a social speculative atmosphere therefore leads to a speculative authority, which is considered to be the most terrible thing.

Actually, what the Chinese authority behaves is partly similar to the behavior of the prisoner in the dilemma. The authority can do whatever things no matter how horrible to maximize the government’s utility such as seizing money, power and stability in short run, neglecting the long run negative effects such as low social moral standard and peasant uprising, for each government leader has only at most ten-year tenure to maximize his utility. This authority speculation, therefore, is the main reason of Chinese long-time turmoil period for almost thousands of years. During the Culture Revolution, for instance, in order to regain righteousness of the power, Mao destroyed almost all the historical relics and treated them as feudal vestiges. On the contrary, after the Reform and Opening Up Policy in the late 20th century, the authority rebuilt these historic relics to increase sightseeing income. The authority uses almost all kinds of methods to dilute the ideology influence among Chinese. By reaching its own sake, the government could break the rule that is built by itself in a short time, which make no further convince among the ordinary people and will definitely cause disastrous effects in the long run. No one will protect the weak and the disadvantage by maximizing his own short run benefit. In 1949, no one remembered to help the KMT party since CCP promises to the social that everyone would live better under their dominance. Almost everyone, under the rule of speculation and short run utility maximization, chooses to terminate KMT’s political position in the mainland. Needless to say, it is himself who used speculation standard to make judgment rather than CPC killed his life in the Culture Revolution. Those persons forget that no one will keep promise without surveillance.

What we do is the thing that ought to remain constant forever: the Constitution, the respect to the rule. The rule of the society should never be adjusted according to one’s own benefit. A rule is a rule. The speculation moral standard should be abandoned thoroughly from the society, or the tragedy will happen once more in the future, simply just because the human nature is similar. We cannot expect too much on the peaceful transformation of China, since nowadays almost all the people live under speculation moral standard and even those scholars who ask for democracy cannot be an exception. Today the scholar can vote for A and tomorrow can for B just because choose A maximizes his utility today while B maximizes tomorrow. There SHOULD be an eternity in the society. That is actually the GOD, because GOD has no conflicts with us and saves our soul by dedicating himself to us. Any agency with real entities can never satisfy the definition of eternity since any agency will have someday that can not survive any more. We can never prove the existence of GOD and nor cannot we. That is the strongest demonstration of the existence of GOD as an eternal.

Looking at the peace in the United States, what remains the constant is its Constitution and Social Rules. We can see the constant wonderful scene of Yellow Stone Park and the Great Canyon, which is under protection of the law that claims we should leave these magnificent scenes to our offspring. These can never be destroyed in the United States just because the Americans believe the eternity of GOD and obey the rule in any conditions without asking ”why”. Thanks the almighty GOD to leave us such great moral standard and consequently such great landscapes. This phenomenon was and will never be observed in the land of China. In one word, a Chinese individual is a dragon while groups of Chinese are simply worms because an individual only cares about himself and only cares short run.

When you believe the eternity, the GOD will bless you. And when you do not believe, the GOD will never pray for you. That seems to be irrational. But how can make the statement of “irrational conclusion” by using the assumption that the spirit of ration dominates the world? If you don’t believe eternity and always speculates, the history of turmoil will reappear in China in the foreseeable future, which will cause another demolishing slaughter both physically and mentally.